Smoking Statistics

STATISTICAL PROOF THAT SMOKING DOES NOT CAUSE SCHIZOPHRENIA.
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Get a feel for the data.
39% of the population have tried smoking.
Less than 1% of the population has schizophrenia.
Approximate Australian population = 20,000,000.

20,000,000 x 39/100 = 7,800,000 Have smoked.
20,000,000 x 1/100 = 200,000 Have schizophrenia.

7,800,000 x 1/100 = 78,000 Smokers have schizophrenia.
200,000 x 39/100 = 78,000 Schizophrenics have smoked.

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The question of "Being predisposed"

Probability of being predisposed to having schizophrenia = 1/100 = 1%

Probability of being predisposed to smoking = 39/100 = 39%

Probability of being predisposed to having schizophrenia

and also smoking

P = 1/100 x 39/100 = 0.0039 = 0.39% of the population

Probability of meeting someone who has schizophrenia and

who has also smoked, is the exact same calculation.

78,000

P = --------------------- = 0.0039 = 0.39%

20,000,000

There is a 0.39% chance of meeting someone who has

both schizophrenia and has also smoked.

So in fact finding both of these two phenomena together

(happening concurrently) has quite a low probability.!!

You would think that finding someone who has smoked,

could therefore nearly "rule-out" a diagnosis of schizophrenia.!!

Smoking reduces the probability of a schizophrenia diagnosis

by two-thirds (2/3), which equates to one-third (1/3) of 1%.

Regular smoking reduces the overall probability

to 0.15% (15/100 x 1%), which is an 85% reduction.

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Let's pretend these Psychiatrists cry "But it's only from Abuse".!!

Let's have a look at this opinion.

4% of the schizophrenics abused smoking in the past 12 months.

Less than 1% of the population has schizophrenia.
Approximate Australian population = 20,000,000.

20,000,000 x 1/100 = 200,000 Have schizophrenia.

200,000 x 4/100 = 8,000 Schizophrenics abuse.

Probability of meeting someone who has schizophrenia, and

who has also 'abused smoking' in the past 12 months

8,000

P = --------------------- = 0.0004 = 0.04%

20,000,000

There's hardly any chance of meeting one what-so-ever.

Somehow 0.04% is suppose to account for 1%.??

I'm pretty sure these doctors are seeing "Pink Elephants".

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39% of the people who have Bipolar, have tried smoking.

39% of the people who have PTSD, have tried smoking.

39% of the Alcoholics, have tried smoking. etc.

Smoking is not just for the schizophrenics.!!

2.6% of the smokers have Bipolar.

3.5% of the smokers have PTSD.

4.1% of the smokers have ADHD. etc.

The number of smokers diagnosed as having

schizophrenia dwindles down to less than 1%.

If you smoke, you are 4 times more likely to

develop PTSD, than you are of developing schizophrenia.

Bipolar = 3 times more likely.

ADHD = 4 times more likely.

Alcoholism = 4 times more likely. etc.

Smoking aggravates ALL mental illnesses, not just

paranoid schizophrenia.!! ie. A Normal Distribution.

Smoking has nothing to do with schizophrenia.!!

Psychiatrists simply offer a "Classically Conditioned Response".

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If you have triggered a "Classically Conditioned Response"

in your psychiatrist, eg. by saying the word "Smoking",

you will often find that this psychiatrist has diagnosed

schizophrenia at a rate as high as 39% of his patients.

Because of his impulsive diagnosing of these smokers,

about 80% of his schizophrenia patients will be smokers.

Which is approximately twice the expected value. (39%).

Males have a higher smoking rate than females.

This Doctor should have a 50-50 split of both

male and female schizophrenia patients.

Conforming with the population gender statistics.

Some doctors will mistakenly think that the side-effects

of smoking are symptoms of a diagnosable mental illness.

Some doctors have a personal vendetta against smoking,

they think of it as a dirty and disgustingly unhealthy habit.

This vindictive attitude will unquestionably lead to crucifixion.

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THE STATISTICAL ANALYSIS

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Fisher's Exact Test - For two proportions or percentages.
Note: This test gives an exact probability (of association).!!

(a+b)! x (c+d)! x (a+c)! x (b+d)!
Probability = ----------------------------------------------
a! x b! x c! x d! x n!

( ! ) means factorial

Smoking = 39/100 Not Smoking = 61/100
Schizophrenia = 1/100 Not Schizophrenia = 99/100

This gives the following contingency table

                                                  Column / Group
                                       Schizophrenia      Smoking
           -------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              Row          |           1                        2                |     Total
           -------------------------------------------------------------------------------
            Success      |           1a                     39b             |     40g
            Failure         |           99c                      61d             |    160h
           -------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             Total            |          100e                    100f             |     200n

Fisher's                   (1+39)! x (99+61)! x (1+99)! x (39+61)!
Exact            =    --------------------------------------------------------
Probability                          1! x 39! x 99! x 61! x 200!

( ! ) means factorial

Fisher's Exact
Probability = 4.463 x 10^-13 = 0.0000000000004463

= Twelve (12) zero's after the decimal place.

P = Zero

Probability of getting schizophrenia from smoking = Zero

(1/P) = 1 chance in 2,240,270,393,986.43
= 1 chance in 2.2 Trillion EXACTLY.!!

Let me just repeat. THIS CALCULATION IS EXACT.!!

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Population of This Planet. ( World population ).

The United States Census Bureau estimates the human population
of the planet Earth, to be 6.91575 Billion people.

                             2,240,270,393,986
Number =   -------------------------------------    =    323.937 times.
                                  6,915,750,000

Each and every person on this planet, would have to
smoke 324 times, before even 1 person
'catched' schizophrenia from smoking.

Can you think-up an 'Alternative illness'.??

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Chi-square Test for Independence

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Null Hypothesis = Smoking causes schizophrenia. (Equivocal).

Alt. Hypothesis = The two conditions are different.

Observed = 1% 99% 39% 61%

Expected = 20% 80% 20% 80% (Calculated)

(20-1)^2 (99-80)^2 (39-20)^2 (80-61)^2

Chi-square = ------------ + -------------- + -------------- + ---------------

20 80 20 80